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Barack Obama Campaign Democrats Elections McCain Obama Opinion Pennsylvania Politics Poll Voting

Top 10 Electoral College Scenario’s… Plus McCain’s Only Realistic Win Scenario (If You Can Really Say Realistic)

This is not really tied to my usual Electoral College Forecasts… This instead is a list of the top 10 Scenarios that could play out on Election Night…. I Will Do Another One on Sunday 10/26)  Along With An Actual Forecast Of My Projection)…

As You See The Map’s Change Below and yes all top 10 scenarios are Obama Win’s, I want you to se the one state that is in common andis the key to an Obama victory…

The top 10 scenarios make up over 45% of all possible outcomes, only a 5% chance remains of a McCain victory.

Assuming polls are correct and PA is safely Obama (which I believe it is) And the assertion that the McCain Campaign is coming to about having to win with out Iowa and New Mexico… Then all eyes are on Virginia, at least in terms of a signal on election night that will guarentee and Obama victory, and that is represented in all of the top 10 scenarios above.  This state pure and simple will end the election early on election night, because without McCain has virtually no shot at winning realistically unless somehow he manages to steal PA, which I find highly doubtful.

Now for one second lets assume McCain wins Virgina which will be tough in its own right.  There is still a very difficult Electoral College map for McCain to overcome.  In terms of what could happen on Election night there are certian things that just are not likely… (eg McCain winning PA, which still by it self doesn’t get him where he needs).  Anyway of all possible outcomes that would be favorable for McCain here is most likely path to victory…

Basically this is the tie scenario (which has a higher chance than this one to occur although still low overall) with one difference… McCain picks off 1 EC vote in Maine to put him to 270… but just to give you an idea of how un-realitic this outcome is… the below Obama blowout and top EC possible for Obama has a higher chance of occuring…

Barack Obama just has pure dominance on the Electoral Map right now, with so little time an Obama victory is all but certain.  AS long as the below critera happen (and they should)

1) Obama needs to win PA- without it he can still win, but it opens other avenues for McCain

2) New Mexico and Iowa are pretty much in the bag but again need to be dilivered

3) Colorado all but ensures victory

4) Virgina (again) guarentees an early victory for Obama

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Barack Obama Campaign Democrats Elections McCain Obama Opinion Politics Poll Race Racism Vote Voting

Reverse Bradley Effect ??? Is The Southeast Actually In Play For Obama???

Get your popcorn ready on election night… Again I will insist that an Obama win is now almost certain… Up to 95% according to the models I use.  The question is becoming how big will this win be ???  I mentioned in my last Full Electoral College Breakdown how a landslide win (375+ EC votes) was possible, what if I told you that states that many have written off got Obama to that mark ???  After the primaries I had indicated due to high African American turnout that I though states in the southeast were in play for Obama, particularly MS and GA with the Bob Barr effect perhaps much more the reason in GA.  I had gotten away from that idea after the “Palin bounce” but recent polling and a new study about the Bradley effect is making me re-think that these are indeed Safe McCain states.  I’ll get to that study in a second but first lets start with some numbers… We’ll begin in Mississippi…

Polls of this state have been sparse due to the fact its a safe Republican state…. In fact since 9/1 there have only been 3 polls done here, one by ARG who’s accuracy I question… on 9/9 Research 2000 did a poll indicating a +12 McCain win.  This was at the height of the Palin bounce for the red team… But by 9/30 the last poll done in MS the VERY Republican tilted Rasmussen had MS in the McCain column at +8.

Since that time there has been no more polling in MS and the more trusted polls like Survery USA haven’t been there at all.

My thoughts on MS at the end of the primary were that with a 35% voting public that is African American that in theory Obama would need to only get 20% of the white vote to win this state.  Now comes the kicker… a recent study on the Bradley effect shows that in some parts of the country there is a reverse Bradley effect…

The Bradley effect–a black politician doing well in the polls but badly in the actual election–has been much discussed but there is little data on how it would work this year. Now a team of researchers from the University of Washington has analyzed the data from the 32 Democratic primaries this year and come to a surprising conclusion. The effect existed in California, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island, but a reverse effect existed in 12 other states, largely in the Southeast. Obama did better in the elections there than in the polls leading up to them. Researchers speculate that some people may tend to give pollsters the “socially correct” answer and in the Southeast, supporting the white person is socially correct.

Hmmm is the only thought that comes to mind on this issue… now on to Georgia…

Where along with a high African American turnout likely also come these to “B” words… “Bob Barr”

This state has been polled more and by other companies first I’ll start with Survery USA 9/15 poll showed McCain up +16, but by 9/29 that lead had been cut in half by Survery USA to +8 most polls this month have been in the McCain +7-+8 range with an error % of 5 %… add in Bob Barr stealing votes from McCain especially if he alienates more true conservatives and this possible reverse Bradley effect and Election Night could be very interesting indeed. On 10/9 there was a McCain plus 3 poll for GA as well.

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Campaign Economy Elections McCain Obama Opinion Palin Poll Vote Voting

Obama Landslide Victory In The Making

Just another quick update on my electoral college analysis, since my last update there has been some changes and of course we’ve had two debates.  There are also have been some changes in my thinking as the blue wave is starting to to build yet again.  With 30 days out it appears to me that this election is over, Americans are worried about actual issues instead of the silly stuff. McCain basically imploded and Palin isn’t enough to save him, it just gave a temporary reprieve to his campaign for a time.  The chance of an Obama victory in the Electoral College nwo stands at a 90% chance.  The chance of an Obama Landslide (375 EC votes +) has leaped from <5% to now 24%.  But I would put his max performance in reality around the 350 range.

McCain has abandoned Michigan, PA finally is pulling away for Obama.  This is seen below in a combined safe votes map.  I’ve turned PA and MI blue.  NM also is steady Obama and NH isn’t that close anymore.  This added 47 more votes to Obama’s safe count.  McCain on the other hand has lost his safe grip on MO and surprisingly MT. Also Obama is making apuch for that one EC vote in NE around Omaha that I’ve been talking about for so long.  This is obvious because Sarah Palin was sent there to campaign there.

McCain’s main strategy now appears to be to defend bush states, but obviously doens’t have the angle or the resources to go after any Kerry states any more.  Obama is just 5 EC shy now of his 269 win/tie, while Johnny Mac needs 101 more votes.  There are 9 toss up states and anyone win for Obama except for one (MT) gets him the presidency.  Big changes to my projection for Election night.  Polling in VA and NC has been very good for Obama so at this point I have to say he is the favorite there.  McCain will hold on in MT and MO and thats it (In is a true 50/50 filp), everywhere else will go to Obama.  The missed polling of younger voters will more than over take any Bradley effect and any state where McCain doens’t have a lead now he will lose.  If his attacking Obama through smears goes badly which it might, the status of MO, MT, ND, and IN might flip and deliver the true landslide.  (I gave Obama that 1 EC vote from NE)  This makes a ceiling for Obama of 382 EC votes.

I will update again after the next debate and after seeing how the negative attacks play out.

Of the Obama states I have down for a final the most in play for McCain to take back would be OH (less likely) economic issues too much here and NC.  The most likely McCain state to fall would be IN as said before.  NV is almost in Obama’s safe map by the way.  There are just way too many states for McCain to defend and Obama has way too many assets, even Carl Rove is predicting an Obama vicory as of today.

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Barack Obama Democrats Elections Government McCain Obama Politics

The Nonsense Palin-Convention Bounce Is Over So Its Reality Time In The Electoral College Analysis

Long Time No Post eh ??? (I’m sure there is many readers on here that don’t even know who I am) But that isn’t so important… I’m the numbers and analysis guy, who started a new job and never has time to post anymore. But I did promise Cats that I would continue to do these for the blog and I am a man of my word.
So lets gets busy…

I also didn’t want to post in haste over the past few weeks I wanted to wait til the conventions in their bounces were over. But McCain (of course) had to go way way out in left feild for his VP selection. Which got the media all hyped and of course polls refelcted this, but we have a appeared to have come back down to reality now. The economic crisis that is unfolding have brought the issues back to the front of this race. BUt for all the percieved “trouble” that Obama was in in regards to the national tracking polls over the past weeks. In reality the Electoral College map still stayed in Obama’s favor. The best John McCain could come up with was a 269-269 tie in EC. That to me has spoke volumes, now that silly time is over, and real issues at least should, stay at the front of the race from here on out. I now put the odds of an Obama victory at nearly 80%. The media tried scaring us into believing that John McCain had a chance… quite simply barring a disaster this race is OVER. You will hear about the whole % 2 Obama lead in the polls could lead to Dem’s who say over the phone tehy’ll vote for Obama but in the booths they will not. You may hear how Conservative base is coming out energized by Palin and while Palin’s nomination helped secure this thing from getting out of hand as in a Blue Crush it will not stop the Barack Train. The fact of the matter is there are so many young people that are going to vote it will more than make up for these so called “Closet Dem Racists”. Come election night this will be obvious early on. It didn’t happen in 2000 or 2004, but I assue you the youngins are coming this time and their not voting for John McCain. This swell of young people are being completely missed by the polls at present, there is no accurate model for what is going to occur. Also African American participation is going to be ridiculously high, much higher than being modeled now in the polls. This effect will be seen early and often but it will be confined to certain regions and not others.

First we have to deal with some things that have changed since my last analysis. Palin’s nomination hast taken Alaska out of play for Obama… Also my possible southern switch isn’t going to occur in places like Georgia. I’ll be giving the high plains are of the country back to McCain but in the places where it matters this again is over.

Baseline Maps (Starting with Johnny Mac)

*WV is not represented in the number on the image above (even though it is colored in) real McCain number is 174

As can be seen I think John McCain has only secured 174 votes in the Electoral College, the Palin selection will help in some places that were not secure before Alaska, Montana, North Dakota and as said before I have delusions about Georgia anymore, also a noteable change in MO, I know they are used to selecting Presidents there but the streak will be broken (and if there was a Presidential Election for this to happen in, it will be this one)… I do believe this state though will represent the closests of McCain’s victories. But in the end lingering issues of race and Palin will push McCain over the top here. One are where I’ve given McCain the edge is in Nebraska, now remember the EC votes are split up here two for the winner of the state and three according to congressional district. District 2 is very much in play for Obama due to the fact it is the urban center for the state… So watch for fun and games here.

Moving on to “O”

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Barack Obama Democrats Elections McCain Obama Party Building Pennsylvania Poll

Florida Is Truly A Swing State Again… And Some New Swing States…BTW I’m Back

Welcome back Florida is all I can say (and welcome back to me to this board) I was one of the people that had for the most part had left FL for dead with how much red-er the state had gotten from the 2000 election to the one in 04. Also the state keeps getting older add in the percieved problem that the jewish community had with Obama (mostly due to to falsehoods)… Polling was also showing a pretty heafty McCain lead so in my computations I colored this state red with new polls today from two sources this could mean a great deal for Obama in the fall as his odds are now at 3-1 to win (I will explain more about this in another post later)…

Obama’s popularity is swelling in alot of other states as well, particuarly in appalachia which he had so much trouble with in the primary, WV is no longer a solid Red state for McCain with recent polls tightning this state could be intertesting in the fall, I still have my doubts though.

Now its common knowledge that the key to winning back the white house since 04′ was to go west McCain screwed us going after AZ but CO and NM are definetly in play for Obama, in fact to me its looking that Colorodo is starting to look like a LIKELY win for Obama, but I never in my wildest dreams though that the West Plan would go this far west… 

 

That’s right Alaska a virtual certainty to be red has become a bonfide swing state based on recent polls and actually it’s been polling close from the start… November is starting to look like it could be a landslide for Obama… In fact at this point its more likely that Obama will get 400 Electoral votes than McCain getting to 270 to even win.  (Again I will post more about this later).

All in all a great polling day for Obama as the unity bounce is working its magic… NH, OH, PA all  +7 for Obama and that’s the average of the last several polls, throw FL and VA in the mix and McCain’s path to the White House is looking largely blocked.

Jer

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Barack Obama Elections

A Look Back: “The World Meets Barak Obama”

A look back at the speech that started it all… the keynote speech at the 2004 convention, I remember watchig it with a very conservative, republica fried and even he said “Damn, if only he didn’t have that name and wasn’t balck you guys would have your self a new JFK” Of course I resented that comment but I have to admit I wasn’t sure if we were ready I knew I was… but I wasn’t sure about the rest of amereica… Obama surprsised me again with his showing in this election… But again this is where it all started

(2 videos 1st one is part 1, 2nd part 2)

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Humor

Sometimes We Need A Break To Laugh…

But through the laughs there is some truth here…

Jer