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Barack Obama Campaign Democrats Elections McCain Obama Opinion Pennsylvania Politics Poll Voting

Top 10 Electoral College Scenario’s… Plus McCain’s Only Realistic Win Scenario (If You Can Really Say Realistic)

This is not really tied to my usual Electoral College Forecasts… This instead is a list of the top 10 Scenarios that could play out on Election Night…. I Will Do Another One on Sunday 10/26)  Along With An Actual Forecast Of My Projection)…

As You See The Map’s Change Below and yes all top 10 scenarios are Obama Win’s, I want you to se the one state that is in common andis the key to an Obama victory…

The top 10 scenarios make up over 45% of all possible outcomes, only a 5% chance remains of a McCain victory.

Assuming polls are correct and PA is safely Obama (which I believe it is) And the assertion that the McCain Campaign is coming to about having to win with out Iowa and New Mexico… Then all eyes are on Virginia, at least in terms of a signal on election night that will guarentee and Obama victory, and that is represented in all of the top 10 scenarios above.  This state pure and simple will end the election early on election night, because without McCain has virtually no shot at winning realistically unless somehow he manages to steal PA, which I find highly doubtful.

Now for one second lets assume McCain wins Virgina which will be tough in its own right.  There is still a very difficult Electoral College map for McCain to overcome.  In terms of what could happen on Election night there are certian things that just are not likely… (eg McCain winning PA, which still by it self doesn’t get him where he needs).  Anyway of all possible outcomes that would be favorable for McCain here is most likely path to victory…

Basically this is the tie scenario (which has a higher chance than this one to occur although still low overall) with one difference… McCain picks off 1 EC vote in Maine to put him to 270… but just to give you an idea of how un-realitic this outcome is… the below Obama blowout and top EC possible for Obama has a higher chance of occuring…

Barack Obama just has pure dominance on the Electoral Map right now, with so little time an Obama victory is all but certain.  AS long as the below critera happen (and they should)

1) Obama needs to win PA- without it he can still win, but it opens other avenues for McCain

2) New Mexico and Iowa are pretty much in the bag but again need to be dilivered

3) Colorado all but ensures victory

4) Virgina (again) guarentees an early victory for Obama

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Barack Obama Campaign Democrats Elections McCain Obama Opinion Politics Poll Race Racism Vote Voting

Reverse Bradley Effect ??? Is The Southeast Actually In Play For Obama???

Get your popcorn ready on election night… Again I will insist that an Obama win is now almost certain… Up to 95% according to the models I use.  The question is becoming how big will this win be ???  I mentioned in my last Full Electoral College Breakdown how a landslide win (375+ EC votes) was possible, what if I told you that states that many have written off got Obama to that mark ???  After the primaries I had indicated due to high African American turnout that I though states in the southeast were in play for Obama, particularly MS and GA with the Bob Barr effect perhaps much more the reason in GA.  I had gotten away from that idea after the “Palin bounce” but recent polling and a new study about the Bradley effect is making me re-think that these are indeed Safe McCain states.  I’ll get to that study in a second but first lets start with some numbers… We’ll begin in Mississippi…

Polls of this state have been sparse due to the fact its a safe Republican state…. In fact since 9/1 there have only been 3 polls done here, one by ARG who’s accuracy I question… on 9/9 Research 2000 did a poll indicating a +12 McCain win.  This was at the height of the Palin bounce for the red team… But by 9/30 the last poll done in MS the VERY Republican tilted Rasmussen had MS in the McCain column at +8.

Since that time there has been no more polling in MS and the more trusted polls like Survery USA haven’t been there at all.

My thoughts on MS at the end of the primary were that with a 35% voting public that is African American that in theory Obama would need to only get 20% of the white vote to win this state.  Now comes the kicker… a recent study on the Bradley effect shows that in some parts of the country there is a reverse Bradley effect…

The Bradley effect–a black politician doing well in the polls but badly in the actual election–has been much discussed but there is little data on how it would work this year. Now a team of researchers from the University of Washington has analyzed the data from the 32 Democratic primaries this year and come to a surprising conclusion. The effect existed in California, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island, but a reverse effect existed in 12 other states, largely in the Southeast. Obama did better in the elections there than in the polls leading up to them. Researchers speculate that some people may tend to give pollsters the “socially correct” answer and in the Southeast, supporting the white person is socially correct.

Hmmm is the only thought that comes to mind on this issue… now on to Georgia…

Where along with a high African American turnout likely also come these to “B” words… “Bob Barr”

This state has been polled more and by other companies first I’ll start with Survery USA 9/15 poll showed McCain up +16, but by 9/29 that lead had been cut in half by Survery USA to +8 most polls this month have been in the McCain +7-+8 range with an error % of 5 %… add in Bob Barr stealing votes from McCain especially if he alienates more true conservatives and this possible reverse Bradley effect and Election Night could be very interesting indeed. On 10/9 there was a McCain plus 3 poll for GA as well.