I also didn’t want to post in haste over the past few weeks I wanted to wait til the conventions in their bounces were over. But McCain (of course) had to go way way out in left feild for his VP selection. Which got the media all hyped and of course polls refelcted this, but we have a appeared to have come back down to reality now. The economic crisis that is unfolding have brought the issues back to the front of this race. BUt for all the percieved “trouble” that Obama was in in regards to the national tracking polls over the past weeks. In reality the Electoral College map still stayed in Obama’s favor. The best John McCain could come up with was a 269-269 tie in EC. That to me has spoke volumes, now that silly time is over, and real issues at least should, stay at the front of the race from here on out. I now put the odds of an Obama victory at nearly 80%. The media tried scaring us into believing that John McCain had a chance… quite simply barring a disaster this race is OVER. You will hear about the whole % 2 Obama lead in the polls could lead to Dem’s who say over the phone tehy’ll vote for Obama but in the booths they will not. You may hear how Conservative base is coming out energized by Palin and while Palin’s nomination helped secure this thing from getting out of hand as in a Blue Crush it will not stop the Barack Train. The fact of the matter is there are so many young people that are going to vote it will more than make up for these so called “Closet Dem Racists”. Come election night this will be obvious early on. It didn’t happen in 2000 or 2004, but I assue you the youngins are coming this time and their not voting for John McCain. This swell of young people are being completely missed by the polls at present, there is no accurate model for what is going to occur. Also African American participation is going to be ridiculously high, much higher than being modeled now in the polls. This effect will be seen early and often but it will be confined to certain regions and not others.
First we have to deal with some things that have changed since my last analysis. Palin’s nomination hast taken Alaska out of play for Obama… Also my possible southern switch isn’t going to occur in places like Georgia. I’ll be giving the high plains are of the country back to McCain but in the places where it matters this again is over.
Baseline Maps (Starting with Johnny Mac)
*WV is not represented in the number on the image above (even though it is colored in) real McCain number is 174
As can be seen I think John McCain has only secured 174 votes in the Electoral College, the Palin selection will help in some places that were not secure before Alaska, Montana, North Dakota and as said before I have delusions about Georgia anymore, also a noteable change in MO, I know they are used to selecting Presidents there but the streak will be broken (and if there was a Presidential Election for this to happen in, it will be this one)… I do believe this state though will represent the closests of McCain’s victories. But in the end lingering issues of race and Palin will push McCain over the top here. One are where I’ve given McCain the edge is in Nebraska, now remember the EC votes are split up here two for the winner of the state and three according to congressional district. District 2 is very much in play for Obama due to the fact it is the urban center for the state… So watch for fun and games here.
Moving on to “O”