Pennsylvania Voters and E-Votes

The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania has allowed the case of the voting rights to progress.  This is a big win for the voters of Pennsylvania.  Without a verifiable paper trail, voters are at risk of not having their vote count as they voted.

PENNSYLVANIA STATE SUPREME COURT ALLOWS VOTING RIGHTS CASE TO PROCEED

Dec 18 2008 | State’s Highest Court Denies Pennsylvania Secretary of State Permission to Appeal Lower Court Ruling in Voters’ Favor Case Challenging the Use of Electronic Voting Machines Now Moves Toward Trial PHILADELPHIA, PA – Pennsylvania voters challenging the continued use of unverifiable electronic voting machines in their state won another major round on Tuesday when the Pennsylvania Supreme Court issued a ruling allowing their case to proceed toward trial. The state’s highest court, in a one-sentence order, denied the Pennsylvania Secretary of State’s petition seeking permission to appeal a lower court ruling decided in the voters’ favor. In April 2007, the Commonwealth Court of Pennsylvania had ruled that voters have a right under the Pennsylvania Constitution to reliable and secure voting systems and can challenge the use of electronic voting machines “that provide no way for Electors to know whether their votes will be recognized” through voter verification or independent audit. Following that ruling, Pennsylvania Secretary of State Pedro Cortés filed his petition before the Pennsylvania Supreme Court and further proceedings in the case, Banfield v. Cortés, had been suspended pending the outcome of the petition. The order issued on Tuesday gives a green light for the voters to pursue their claims.

Stay informed and read the details about protecting voter rights at VoterAction.

Top 10 Electoral College Scenario’s… Plus McCain’s Only Realistic Win Scenario (If You Can Really Say Realistic)

This is not really tied to my usual Electoral College Forecasts… This instead is a list of the top 10 Scenarios that could play out on Election Night…. I Will Do Another One on Sunday 10/26)  Along With An Actual Forecast Of My Projection)…

As You See The Map’s Change Below and yes all top 10 scenarios are Obama Win’s, I want you to se the one state that is in common andis the key to an Obama victory…

The top 10 scenarios make up over 45% of all possible outcomes, only a 5% chance remains of a McCain victory.

Assuming polls are correct and PA is safely Obama (which I believe it is) And the assertion that the McCain Campaign is coming to about having to win with out Iowa and New Mexico… Then all eyes are on Virginia, at least in terms of a signal on election night that will guarentee and Obama victory, and that is represented in all of the top 10 scenarios above.  This state pure and simple will end the election early on election night, because without McCain has virtually no shot at winning realistically unless somehow he manages to steal PA, which I find highly doubtful.

Now for one second lets assume McCain wins Virgina which will be tough in its own right.  There is still a very difficult Electoral College map for McCain to overcome.  In terms of what could happen on Election night there are certian things that just are not likely… (eg McCain winning PA, which still by it self doesn’t get him where he needs).  Anyway of all possible outcomes that would be favorable for McCain here is most likely path to victory…

Basically this is the tie scenario (which has a higher chance than this one to occur although still low overall) with one difference… McCain picks off 1 EC vote in Maine to put him to 270… but just to give you an idea of how un-realitic this outcome is… the below Obama blowout and top EC possible for Obama has a higher chance of occuring…

Barack Obama just has pure dominance on the Electoral Map right now, with so little time an Obama victory is all but certain.  AS long as the below critera happen (and they should)

1) Obama needs to win PA- without it he can still win, but it opens other avenues for McCain

2) New Mexico and Iowa are pretty much in the bag but again need to be dilivered

3) Colorado all but ensures victory

4) Virgina (again) guarentees an early victory for Obama

Reverse Bradley Effect ??? Is The Southeast Actually In Play For Obama???

Get your popcorn ready on election night… Again I will insist that an Obama win is now almost certain… Up to 95% according to the models I use.  The question is becoming how big will this win be ???  I mentioned in my last Full Electoral College Breakdown how a landslide win (375+ EC votes) was possible, what if I told you that states that many have written off got Obama to that mark ???  After the primaries I had indicated due to high African American turnout that I though states in the southeast were in play for Obama, particularly MS and GA with the Bob Barr effect perhaps much more the reason in GA.  I had gotten away from that idea after the “Palin bounce” but recent polling and a new study about the Bradley effect is making me re-think that these are indeed Safe McCain states.  I’ll get to that study in a second but first lets start with some numbers… We’ll begin in Mississippi…

Polls of this state have been sparse due to the fact its a safe Republican state…. In fact since 9/1 there have only been 3 polls done here, one by ARG who’s accuracy I question… on 9/9 Research 2000 did a poll indicating a +12 McCain win.  This was at the height of the Palin bounce for the red team… But by 9/30 the last poll done in MS the VERY Republican tilted Rasmussen had MS in the McCain column at +8.

Since that time there has been no more polling in MS and the more trusted polls like Survery USA haven’t been there at all.

My thoughts on MS at the end of the primary were that with a 35% voting public that is African American that in theory Obama would need to only get 20% of the white vote to win this state.  Now comes the kicker… a recent study on the Bradley effect shows that in some parts of the country there is a reverse Bradley effect…

The Bradley effect–a black politician doing well in the polls but badly in the actual election–has been much discussed but there is little data on how it would work this year. Now a team of researchers from the University of Washington has analyzed the data from the 32 Democratic primaries this year and come to a surprising conclusion. The effect existed in California, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island, but a reverse effect existed in 12 other states, largely in the Southeast. Obama did better in the elections there than in the polls leading up to them. Researchers speculate that some people may tend to give pollsters the “socially correct” answer and in the Southeast, supporting the white person is socially correct.

Hmmm is the only thought that comes to mind on this issue… now on to Georgia…

Where along with a high African American turnout likely also come these to “B” words… “Bob Barr”

This state has been polled more and by other companies first I’ll start with Survery USA 9/15 poll showed McCain up +16, but by 9/29 that lead had been cut in half by Survery USA to +8 most polls this month have been in the McCain +7-+8 range with an error % of 5 %… add in Bob Barr stealing votes from McCain especially if he alienates more true conservatives and this possible reverse Bradley effect and Election Night could be very interesting indeed. On 10/9 there was a McCain plus 3 poll for GA as well.

Obama Landslide Victory In The Making

Just another quick update on my electoral college analysis, since my last update there has been some changes and of course we’ve had two debates.  There are also have been some changes in my thinking as the blue wave is starting to to build yet again.  With 30 days out it appears to me that this election is over, Americans are worried about actual issues instead of the silly stuff. McCain basically imploded and Palin isn’t enough to save him, it just gave a temporary reprieve to his campaign for a time.  The chance of an Obama victory in the Electoral College nwo stands at a 90% chance.  The chance of an Obama Landslide (375 EC votes +) has leaped from <5% to now 24%.  But I would put his max performance in reality around the 350 range.

McCain has abandoned Michigan, PA finally is pulling away for Obama.  This is seen below in a combined safe votes map.  I’ve turned PA and MI blue.  NM also is steady Obama and NH isn’t that close anymore.  This added 47 more votes to Obama’s safe count.  McCain on the other hand has lost his safe grip on MO and surprisingly MT. Also Obama is making apuch for that one EC vote in NE around Omaha that I’ve been talking about for so long.  This is obvious because Sarah Palin was sent there to campaign there.

McCain’s main strategy now appears to be to defend bush states, but obviously doens’t have the angle or the resources to go after any Kerry states any more.  Obama is just 5 EC shy now of his 269 win/tie, while Johnny Mac needs 101 more votes.  There are 9 toss up states and anyone win for Obama except for one (MT) gets him the presidency.  Big changes to my projection for Election night.  Polling in VA and NC has been very good for Obama so at this point I have to say he is the favorite there.  McCain will hold on in MT and MO and thats it (In is a true 50/50 filp), everywhere else will go to Obama.  The missed polling of younger voters will more than over take any Bradley effect and any state where McCain doens’t have a lead now he will lose.  If his attacking Obama through smears goes badly which it might, the status of MO, MT, ND, and IN might flip and deliver the true landslide.  (I gave Obama that 1 EC vote from NE)  This makes a ceiling for Obama of 382 EC votes.

I will update again after the next debate and after seeing how the negative attacks play out.

Of the Obama states I have down for a final the most in play for McCain to take back would be OH (less likely) economic issues too much here and NC.  The most likely McCain state to fall would be IN as said before.  NV is almost in Obama’s safe map by the way.  There are just way too many states for McCain to defend and Obama has way too many assets, even Carl Rove is predicting an Obama vicory as of today.

Confirm Your Voter Status

Follow this link to a website where you can confirm your voter status.  This is important because the final date for registration is quickly approaching and there have been massive purging of voter registrations.

Don’t be fooled again.  Check it out and pass this on.  We can’t allow the “brown shirts” to take away our voting rights, again.

Will your vote be counted?

Will your vote be counted?

Or will your vote be among the “missing” votes. We will lose our freedoms and our democracy not by guns, bombs and cannons, but by not having our votes counted.

Voting is protected by our Constitution and it is our right and responsibility to vote. When South Africa did away with Apartheid, many South Africans walked for days and waited in line for many hours so that they could cast their vote for the first time. We Americans take our right to vote for granted. In a non-presidential year, only 20% to 30% of eligible voters vote. That percentage increases to about 70% for a presidential election. In 1992 and 2004, the percentage rose to approximately 80%. Seems like the “Bush” family brings out voters.

In 2000 and 2004, voters were turned away or illegally removed from the ballot in both Florida and Ohio. Just the other day, a voter was arrested in Missouri because he refused to show a picture ID when he went to vote. Then there is the incident where the 90 year old nuns were turned away in Illinois because they didn’t have the proper ID. Many places in Europe do not require that a voter register to vote. The voting sites have lists of names with the eligible voters and this is what is used for voter verification. In Australia, the law requires that every eligible voter votes otherwise they receive a fine from their government.

The United States makes it difficult to vote. Every state has its own set of voting rules. This is wrong. Voting should be regulated on the national level because every vote, even for local candidates, has an impact on the nation as a whole. There should be one set of general guidelines for voting. One that prohibits states from creating impediments to voting and election day should be a national holiday.

So what happens when one finally does manage to get to the voting machine and cast their ballot? Will it be counted? With the electronic computerized voting machines, there is a great danger that votes will not be counted or changed by a hacker. Watch the trailer to “Stealing America“. It happened before and it can happen again. We must demand accountability in our voting system otherwise we will lose our democracy.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

Are you registered to vote?  You can verify your registration at VotePoke

Electoral College Analysis Update… Does The Shift To Obama Continue ??

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UPDATE: The analysis below was done back in July.

For the latest trend, go to DailyKos.  Looks like the GOP Convention/Palin bump is declining and Obama is moving ahead.  Looks like the American voter realizes that John McCain knows nothing about economics and McCain/Palin would bring more of the same failing economics that Bush gave us.  Afterall, when Palin left her position as Mayor of Wasilla, she left a $200 million debt to a small town that had a surplus when she was first elected.

Obama has a plan that will provide more jobs and more money for the Middle Class… more jobs means more money in the pockets of Americans which means more money to buy goods which in return produces more jobs.   Democrats have always done a better job with the economy.

McCain offers no real tax breaks for the Middle Class.  He is offering a HUGE tax break to anyone that makes over $600,000/year. Looks like more of the same to me.  “Thanks, but no thanks.”  We need to change direction in Washington DC.

For a little fun with numbers…

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Instead of making many maps I’ve consolidated a few things at least for the review…

In my analysis during the last update we left off with a hefty Obama advantage after adding his safe states and lean states the presidency was his, and what was overwhelming was the comparison of safe states where Obama was only 28 EC votes away from the presidency as apposed to John McCain whose safe states only brought him to 133. leaving him 137 away, his lean states only brining him to a total of 203 and having 60 EC votes as toss ups…

June 23rd Map Projection:

bigger image: http://i36.tinypic.com/34rzsd4.jpg

So what Changes do we have this go around

OBAMA’s GOOD NEWS

Obama And McCain Tied In Poll… In GEORGIA !!!

HA… I’m going to go into more about this in my mega post about my electoral college analysis… but today’s poll is showing exactly what I’m thinking… Due to Barr (L) being on the ballot and GA being his home state opens up some big possibilities for Obama….

A New InsiderAdvantage / PollPosition survey conducted June 18 of registered likely voters in the November presidential contest shows Sen. John McCain leading Sen. Barack Obama by a single point in Georgia, making the race in Georgia a statistical tie. Libertarian Bob Barr, a former Republican Congressman from Georgia, received 6 percent of the vote. …

The Results:

McCain: 44%
Obama: 43%
Barr: 6%
Undecided: 7%

john.he.is

Democrats of Chester County…

Lots of things happening in Chester County. Check out this blog for Chester County Democrats. The Democrats of Pennsylvania are organized. Watch out, Republicans. We’re gonna’ beat you this November. After all, we are BETTER!