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Bush Congress Democrats Economy Government Health Obama Opinion Politics Republicans Treason

Commentary- The Torture Issue… Is It Worth It?

So I’m torn… What is more imporatant, right and wrong… or health care reform???  Going after the war crimes of the past administration or fixing our economy???

These are some really tough issues to debate… Let me be clear…Torture is what happened and it was wrong and illiegal.  But we have an opportunity to do something about these huge issues… If we are baited into going after the crimes of the past I fear that the Republicans will use this is a rallying cry… and Cheney running around on TV, I think he is daring us… Remember Republicans are jerks and  misguided but they are not stupid… they like power and will do anything to get back into power… and this is their one chance to get it.  If they make us go through this, if they get us off track.  We may miss our chances… And they can vilify us for getting nothing done, openening the door for their return to power.  Just something to think about.

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Congress Democrats Elections PA Senators Pennsylvania Poll Republicans Senator Specter

Two Polls That Should Scare The Crap Out Of PA Dem’s

May 6, 2009

Public Opinion StrategiesPennsylvania

Favorable / Unfavorable
Sen. Arlen Specter (D): 50 / 40 (chart)
Pat Toomey (R): 29 / 13
Rom Ridge (R): 67 / 18
Peg Luksik (R): 5 / 3
Joe Sestak (D) 15 / 3

2010 Senate – Republican Primary
Ridge 51, Roomey 21, Luksik 2
Ridge 60, Toomey 23

2010 Senate – Democratic Primary
Specter 57, Sestak 20

2010 Senate – General Election
Specter 49, Toomey 40
Ridge 48, Specter 41

(source)

May 6, 2009

Susquehanna Polling & Research

Pennsylvania

2010 Senate – General Election
Specter 42, Toomey 36
Ridge 39, Specter 38

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Candidate Democrats

Democrats – Let’s Start a Campaign

The Internet chatter lately has been about Congressman Joe Sestak replacing Senator Arlen Specter as Pennsylvania’s candidate for US Senate on the Democratic ticket in 2010.  Right now, this seems like a good idea.

Listen to what Congressman Sestak has to say here… and the link to his website can be found here

Pennsylvania voted for “Change” last November and so far, Specter has not voted for change.

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Banking Democrats Health

Democrats, Say “No” to Senator Specter

Last week, the Senate’s newest Democrat, Arlen Specter voted against protecting Pennsylvanians from losing their homes. In other words, he voted “no” on S.896 which would prevent mortgage foreclosures and preserve home values. The banks own Senator Specter because he votes in their best interest and not the best interest of his constituents.

When it comes to health care, Pennsylvanians will be on their own because Senator Specter also stated that he would not support a publicly funded health care plan. What he neglected to say was that he would still be keeping his publicly funded health care plan. Listen to what Senator Specter had to say on “Meet the Press“.

If Senator Specter continues to vote with the Republicans and expects to get the support of the Pennsylvania State Democratic Party, he may be in for a big surprise next year. The Democratic Committee people in Pennsylvania want a REAL Democrat on the ticket and not a DINO.

Arlen Specter only cares about getting re-elected. He will always vote with the Republicans and vote against the best interest of our nation.

And then there is Senator’s view on the Supreme Court.

Remember how Arlen Specter treated Anita Hill.

Listen to Specter’s view on the Republican Party. He misses “Reagan”.

Don’t let Specter’s “switch” fool you. He is still a Republican at heart and he will not be supporting President Obama’s agenda and the American people’s desire for change. It will be the “same old wine, but a brand new bottle” with Specter.

Democrats, say “NO” to Arlen Specter.

UPDATE: Specter first told President Obama that he would be a loyal Democrat and then he denied he said that today on “Meet the Press“.

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Barack Obama Campaign Democrats Elections McCain Obama Opinion Pennsylvania Politics Poll Voting

Top 10 Electoral College Scenario’s… Plus McCain’s Only Realistic Win Scenario (If You Can Really Say Realistic)

This is not really tied to my usual Electoral College Forecasts… This instead is a list of the top 10 Scenarios that could play out on Election Night…. I Will Do Another One on Sunday 10/26)  Along With An Actual Forecast Of My Projection)…

As You See The Map’s Change Below and yes all top 10 scenarios are Obama Win’s, I want you to se the one state that is in common andis the key to an Obama victory…

The top 10 scenarios make up over 45% of all possible outcomes, only a 5% chance remains of a McCain victory.

Assuming polls are correct and PA is safely Obama (which I believe it is) And the assertion that the McCain Campaign is coming to about having to win with out Iowa and New Mexico… Then all eyes are on Virginia, at least in terms of a signal on election night that will guarentee and Obama victory, and that is represented in all of the top 10 scenarios above.  This state pure and simple will end the election early on election night, because without McCain has virtually no shot at winning realistically unless somehow he manages to steal PA, which I find highly doubtful.

Now for one second lets assume McCain wins Virgina which will be tough in its own right.  There is still a very difficult Electoral College map for McCain to overcome.  In terms of what could happen on Election night there are certian things that just are not likely… (eg McCain winning PA, which still by it self doesn’t get him where he needs).  Anyway of all possible outcomes that would be favorable for McCain here is most likely path to victory…

Basically this is the tie scenario (which has a higher chance than this one to occur although still low overall) with one difference… McCain picks off 1 EC vote in Maine to put him to 270… but just to give you an idea of how un-realitic this outcome is… the below Obama blowout and top EC possible for Obama has a higher chance of occuring…

Barack Obama just has pure dominance on the Electoral Map right now, with so little time an Obama victory is all but certain.  AS long as the below critera happen (and they should)

1) Obama needs to win PA- without it he can still win, but it opens other avenues for McCain

2) New Mexico and Iowa are pretty much in the bag but again need to be dilivered

3) Colorado all but ensures victory

4) Virgina (again) guarentees an early victory for Obama

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Democrats Open Thread Pennsylvania Politics Videos

The Identity of Cats Revealed!

After the Jump!

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Barack Obama Campaign Democrats Elections McCain Obama Opinion Politics Poll Race Racism Vote Voting

Reverse Bradley Effect ??? Is The Southeast Actually In Play For Obama???

Get your popcorn ready on election night… Again I will insist that an Obama win is now almost certain… Up to 95% according to the models I use.  The question is becoming how big will this win be ???  I mentioned in my last Full Electoral College Breakdown how a landslide win (375+ EC votes) was possible, what if I told you that states that many have written off got Obama to that mark ???  After the primaries I had indicated due to high African American turnout that I though states in the southeast were in play for Obama, particularly MS and GA with the Bob Barr effect perhaps much more the reason in GA.  I had gotten away from that idea after the “Palin bounce” but recent polling and a new study about the Bradley effect is making me re-think that these are indeed Safe McCain states.  I’ll get to that study in a second but first lets start with some numbers… We’ll begin in Mississippi…

Polls of this state have been sparse due to the fact its a safe Republican state…. In fact since 9/1 there have only been 3 polls done here, one by ARG who’s accuracy I question… on 9/9 Research 2000 did a poll indicating a +12 McCain win.  This was at the height of the Palin bounce for the red team… But by 9/30 the last poll done in MS the VERY Republican tilted Rasmussen had MS in the McCain column at +8.

Since that time there has been no more polling in MS and the more trusted polls like Survery USA haven’t been there at all.

My thoughts on MS at the end of the primary were that with a 35% voting public that is African American that in theory Obama would need to only get 20% of the white vote to win this state.  Now comes the kicker… a recent study on the Bradley effect shows that in some parts of the country there is a reverse Bradley effect…

The Bradley effect–a black politician doing well in the polls but badly in the actual election–has been much discussed but there is little data on how it would work this year. Now a team of researchers from the University of Washington has analyzed the data from the 32 Democratic primaries this year and come to a surprising conclusion. The effect existed in California, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island, but a reverse effect existed in 12 other states, largely in the Southeast. Obama did better in the elections there than in the polls leading up to them. Researchers speculate that some people may tend to give pollsters the “socially correct” answer and in the Southeast, supporting the white person is socially correct.

Hmmm is the only thought that comes to mind on this issue… now on to Georgia…

Where along with a high African American turnout likely also come these to “B” words… “Bob Barr”

This state has been polled more and by other companies first I’ll start with Survery USA 9/15 poll showed McCain up +16, but by 9/29 that lead had been cut in half by Survery USA to +8 most polls this month have been in the McCain +7-+8 range with an error % of 5 %… add in Bob Barr stealing votes from McCain especially if he alienates more true conservatives and this possible reverse Bradley effect and Election Night could be very interesting indeed. On 10/9 there was a McCain plus 3 poll for GA as well.

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Barack Obama Democrats Elections Government McCain Obama Politics

The Nonsense Palin-Convention Bounce Is Over So Its Reality Time In The Electoral College Analysis

Long Time No Post eh ??? (I’m sure there is many readers on here that don’t even know who I am) But that isn’t so important… I’m the numbers and analysis guy, who started a new job and never has time to post anymore. But I did promise Cats that I would continue to do these for the blog and I am a man of my word.
So lets gets busy…

I also didn’t want to post in haste over the past few weeks I wanted to wait til the conventions in their bounces were over. But McCain (of course) had to go way way out in left feild for his VP selection. Which got the media all hyped and of course polls refelcted this, but we have a appeared to have come back down to reality now. The economic crisis that is unfolding have brought the issues back to the front of this race. BUt for all the percieved “trouble” that Obama was in in regards to the national tracking polls over the past weeks. In reality the Electoral College map still stayed in Obama’s favor. The best John McCain could come up with was a 269-269 tie in EC. That to me has spoke volumes, now that silly time is over, and real issues at least should, stay at the front of the race from here on out. I now put the odds of an Obama victory at nearly 80%. The media tried scaring us into believing that John McCain had a chance… quite simply barring a disaster this race is OVER. You will hear about the whole % 2 Obama lead in the polls could lead to Dem’s who say over the phone tehy’ll vote for Obama but in the booths they will not. You may hear how Conservative base is coming out energized by Palin and while Palin’s nomination helped secure this thing from getting out of hand as in a Blue Crush it will not stop the Barack Train. The fact of the matter is there are so many young people that are going to vote it will more than make up for these so called “Closet Dem Racists”. Come election night this will be obvious early on. It didn’t happen in 2000 or 2004, but I assue you the youngins are coming this time and their not voting for John McCain. This swell of young people are being completely missed by the polls at present, there is no accurate model for what is going to occur. Also African American participation is going to be ridiculously high, much higher than being modeled now in the polls. This effect will be seen early and often but it will be confined to certain regions and not others.

First we have to deal with some things that have changed since my last analysis. Palin’s nomination hast taken Alaska out of play for Obama… Also my possible southern switch isn’t going to occur in places like Georgia. I’ll be giving the high plains are of the country back to McCain but in the places where it matters this again is over.

Baseline Maps (Starting with Johnny Mac)

*WV is not represented in the number on the image above (even though it is colored in) real McCain number is 174

As can be seen I think John McCain has only secured 174 votes in the Electoral College, the Palin selection will help in some places that were not secure before Alaska, Montana, North Dakota and as said before I have delusions about Georgia anymore, also a noteable change in MO, I know they are used to selecting Presidents there but the streak will be broken (and if there was a Presidential Election for this to happen in, it will be this one)… I do believe this state though will represent the closests of McCain’s victories. But in the end lingering issues of race and Palin will push McCain over the top here. One are where I’ve given McCain the edge is in Nebraska, now remember the EC votes are split up here two for the winner of the state and three according to congressional district. District 2 is very much in play for Obama due to the fact it is the urban center for the state… So watch for fun and games here.

Moving on to “O”

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Barack Obama Democrats Obama Pennsylvania

We need your help!

On Saturday September 27th “Berks for Obama” is walking in support of The Humane Society of Berks County under the pack name “Bark for Obama”! My husband, myself and our mini dachshund are both walking with the Pack and have set up a fundraising page: http://www.firstgiving.com/shrinkingminchs. The pack has to raise $1000 total in order to qualify for special Bark for Obama t-shirts and a table at the event. This is a great opportunity of exposure for us as this is sure to be a huge event! It’s even being held within the Reading Phillies stadium! The top fundraiser even wins a billboard advertisement located within Berks County!

If your available you should most deffinetely try to sign up and walk with us! You can find out all the information you need to know here.

And if your unable to walk and would like to contribute to our fundraising page at the link above we would be forever greatful!

Yes we can!!!

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Democrats Elections

Experience and Change

This new ad is dynamic.

Obama/Biden ’08