This is not really tied to my usual Electoral College Forecasts… This instead is a list of the top 10 Scenarios that could play out on Election Night…. I Will Do Another One on Sunday 10/26) Along With An Actual Forecast Of My Projection)…
As You See The Map’s Change Below and yes all top 10 scenarios are Obama Win’s, I want you to se the one state that is in common andis the key to an Obama victory…
The top 10 scenarios make up over 45% of all possible outcomes, only a 5% chance remains of a McCain victory.
Assuming polls are correct and PA is safely Obama (which I believe it is) And the assertion that the McCain Campaign is coming to about having to win with out Iowa and New Mexico… Then all eyes are on Virginia, at least in terms of a signal on election night that will guarentee and Obama victory, and that is represented in all of the top 10 scenarios above. This state pure and simple will end the election early on election night, because without McCain has virtually no shot at winning realistically unless somehow he manages to steal PA, which I find highly doubtful.
Now for one second lets assume McCain wins Virgina which will be tough in its own right. There is still a very difficult Electoral College map for McCain to overcome. In terms of what could happen on Election night there are certian things that just are not likely… (eg McCain winning PA, which still by it self doesn’t get him where he needs). Anyway of all possible outcomes that would be favorable for McCain here is most likely path to victory…
Basically this is the tie scenario (which has a higher chance than this one to occur although still low overall) with one difference… McCain picks off 1 EC vote in Maine to put him to 270… but just to give you an idea of how un-realitic this outcome is… the below Obama blowout and top EC possible for Obama has a higher chance of occuring…
Barack Obama just has pure dominance on the Electoral Map right now, with so little time an Obama victory is all but certain. AS long as the below critera happen (and they should)
1) Obama needs to win PA- without it he can still win, but it opens other avenues for McCain
2) New Mexico and Iowa are pretty much in the bag but again need to be dilivered
3) Colorado all but ensures victory
4) Virgina (again) guarentees an early victory for Obama
Organizing for Change 
6 replies on “Top 10 Electoral College Scenario’s… Plus McCain’s Only Realistic Win Scenario (If You Can Really Say Realistic)”
Also it should be noted that an Obama win in FL enures victory even more, but Virgina is just more likely due to his lead and rescouces there. But with both states on on East Coast a win in either ends the night early.
I have been studying the map too and it really looks bad for McCain – but great for us.
The only scenario I really can come up with – when you take into account McCain’s dwindling funds – is scenario 5 above. The likelihood of that is low to begin with. Florida and Ohio can be ‘won’ by McCain (remember 2000 and 2004). In order to get to scenario 5, McCain must have to win every toss-up state on the Real Clear Politics map.
Since McCain is giving up in Colorado, that means Virginia is only important if he can take New Hampshire with it.
Reports are that McCain will target Pennsylvania now. That means he’ll be playing the racism card in the hopes that the Bradley Effect is real – which is his only hope now.
The Get Out The Vote effort in Pennsylvania will be significant. McCain actually thinks that he can win Philadelphia and its suburbs. The only way that would happen is if the voting machines broke. Philadelphia has a Democratic mayor and Montgomery County has become a stronghold for Democrats and moderate Republicans, what I would refer to as the “Colin Powell” Republicans. Sarah Palin may appeal to the right wingers in Lebanon County and York County but after that, it’s all Obama.
where’s the poll?
incase yr not aware of it – as it only shows up when others visit our blogs… you have pop up ads turned on
you can turn them off going to dash board/theme/extras
and there it is the off switch!
they appear right over yr text and take an age to disappear
it’s like being in a lift and you press the button to close the doors and they take for ever to close!
Wow – incredible!
But to ensure the scenarios we MUST ALL GET OUT AND VOTE NOW!!!!
Wishful thinking will not create these scenarios.
Each of us MUST EARLY VOTE (if we can in our state) and we must adopt five voters and make sure they go out and vote for Obama. (Drive them to the polls if you have to).
YES we can!!!
Obama/Biden 08!
Early Vote!!!
McCain’s fighting like hell for Pennsylvania. Sorry, John, but it’s Gone, Baby, Gone.