Get your popcorn ready on election night… Again I will insist that an Obama win is now almost certain… Up to 95% according to the models I use. The question is becoming how big will this win be ??? I mentioned in my last Full Electoral College Breakdown how a landslide win (375+ EC votes) was possible, what if I told you that states that many have written off got Obama to that mark ??? After the primaries I had indicated due to high African American turnout that I though states in the southeast were in play for Obama, particularly MS and GA with the Bob Barr effect perhaps much more the reason in GA. I had gotten away from that idea after the “Palin bounce” but recent polling and a new study about the Bradley effect is making me re-think that these are indeed Safe McCain states. I’ll get to that study in a second but first lets start with some numbers… We’ll begin in Mississippi…
Polls of this state have been sparse due to the fact its a safe Republican state…. In fact since 9/1 there have only been 3 polls done here, one by ARG who’s accuracy I question… on 9/9 Research 2000 did a poll indicating a +12 McCain win. This was at the height of the Palin bounce for the red team… But by 9/30 the last poll done in MS the VERY Republican tilted Rasmussen had MS in the McCain column at +8.
Since that time there has been no more polling in MS and the more trusted polls like Survery USA haven’t been there at all.
My thoughts on MS at the end of the primary were that with a 35% voting public that is African American that in theory Obama would need to only get 20% of the white vote to win this state. Now comes the kicker… a recent study on the Bradley effect shows that in some parts of the country there is a reverse Bradley effect…
The Bradley effect–a black politician doing well in the polls but badly in the actual election–has been much discussed but there is little data on how it would work this year. Now a team of researchers from the University of Washington has analyzed the data from the 32 Democratic primaries this year and come to a surprising conclusion. The effect existed in California, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island, but a reverse effect existed in 12 other states, largely in the Southeast. Obama did better in the elections there than in the polls leading up to them. Researchers speculate that some people may tend to give pollsters the “socially correct” answer and in the Southeast, supporting the white person is socially correct.
Hmmm is the only thought that comes to mind on this issue… now on to Georgia…
Where along with a high African American turnout likely also come these to “B” words… “Bob Barr”
This state has been polled more and by other companies first I’ll start with Survery USA 9/15 poll showed McCain up +16, but by 9/29 that lead had been cut in half by Survery USA to +8 most polls this month have been in the McCain +7-+8 range with an error % of 5 %… add in Bob Barr stealing votes from McCain especially if he alienates more true conservatives and this possible reverse Bradley effect and Election Night could be very interesting indeed. On 10/9 there was a McCain plus 3 poll for GA as well.
8 replies on “Reverse Bradley Effect ??? Is The Southeast Actually In Play For Obama???”
There is so much in play now that should be “red” that it’s unbelievable. We really could be poised for a landslide. I heard today North Dakota is trending Obama as well as West Virginia. And of course GA as you point out. With the economy tanking and the absolute horror show created by the Bushgang over the last 8 years, get ready, because the ground is shaking, and the earth is about to open up and swallow McCain-Palin.
I hope your right. This morning, I got a phone call from a person in my neighborhood asking me what can he do to keep people from stealing his Obama signs? My husband told him that he climbed up a ladder and nailed our signs to trees. The neighbor said that he is going to do the same. I overheard the phone conversation which included “they want to take away our right to free speech which is fascism. ” The neighbor told my husband that he very well understands have speech stifled because he once lived in a Communist country.
The McCain/Palin supporters want the US to become a fascist nation.
For the health of our nation, Obama/Biden MUST win. I’ve heard so many people say that they would leave this nation if McCain/Palin win and Canada doesn’t want all of us. I have friends that are already looking into moving to Spain and some other friends that already own property in Canada. After reading and hearing about what life is like in Alaska, Palin would set our nation back 100 years. As for McCain, after I lost a 74 year old friend to a heart attack last week, I’m not confident that 72 year old McCain will complete 4 years in the HIGHEST stressed job in the world. He’s already looking weathered from campaigning. We need youth and intelligence for the most difficult job. Bush destroyed everything, including our economy, and it will take a calm, steady person just to begin to put our nation back together. The US economy has become Humpty-Dumpty after he fell off the wall.
I wear my support for Obama blatantly and I live in a republican community – pretty much.
It seems that most of my neighbors don’t want THEIR neighbors to know that they’re voting for Obama since they’re all republicans.
But because I’m an open Obama supporter, they have all come up to me, one by one, in random places – bank, supermarket, parking lot, gas station – and have told me that Obama is going to win and most of them have already voted!
So it’s funny to me that they’re all hiding the same secret and Obama is the beneficiary. 🙂
So I believe that will we see this effect all across America – people secretly voting for Obama.
Even when I make phone calls I find that most of the independents are for Obama or leaning Obama. Only one lady screamed at me and told me that Obama is rude – go figure!
Happy, happy, joy, joy!!!
Staunch Republicans are now admitting that they can not vote for McCain and will vote for Obama.
What floors me the most are the conservative pundits who are endorsing Obama or criticizing McCain – Palin.
The coattail effect for Obama will be amazing.
Or the racist fascists at the Monro Mufflers on Perkiomen Ave (in front of Giant) that made gunshot noise and gun motion with their hands at our Obama Hope sticker on the back of our car! Wonder what those pigs are going to do when he’s elected?
I’ve already voted. If he wins, I’ll jump up and down..If he wins by a land slide, I’m taking myself on a vacation. And I’ll have you know, my suitcase is already packed. whoohooo!
Steadycat – great. Here in Pennsylvania, we must wait until November 4 to vote. I work the polls every general election and I think it’s going to be a very tiring day on November 4. Turnout is really good in the area where I live so I’m expecting long lines.