Just another quick update on my electoral college analysis, since my last update there has been some changes and of course we’ve had two debates. There are also have been some changes in my thinking as the blue wave is starting to to build yet again. With 30 days out it appears to me that this election is over, Americans are worried about actual issues instead of the silly stuff. McCain basically imploded and Palin isn’t enough to save him, it just gave a temporary reprieve to his campaign for a time. The chance of an Obama victory in the Electoral College nwo stands at a 90% chance. The chance of an Obama Landslide (375 EC votes +) has leaped from <5% to now 24%. But I would put his max performance in reality around the 350 range.
McCain has abandoned Michigan, PA finally is pulling away for Obama. This is seen below in a combined safe votes map. I’ve turned PA and MI blue. NM also is steady Obama and NH isn’t that close anymore. This added 47 more votes to Obama’s safe count. McCain on the other hand has lost his safe grip on MO and surprisingly MT. Also Obama is making apuch for that one EC vote in NE around Omaha that I’ve been talking about for so long. This is obvious because Sarah Palin was sent there to campaign there.
McCain’s main strategy now appears to be to defend bush states, but obviously doens’t have the angle or the resources to go after any Kerry states any more. Obama is just 5 EC shy now of his 269 win/tie, while Johnny Mac needs 101 more votes. There are 9 toss up states and anyone win for Obama except for one (MT) gets him the presidency. Big changes to my projection for Election night. Polling in VA and NC has been very good for Obama so at this point I have to say he is the favorite there. McCain will hold on in MT and MO and thats it (In is a true 50/50 filp), everywhere else will go to Obama. The missed polling of younger voters will more than over take any Bradley effect and any state where McCain doens’t have a lead now he will lose. If his attacking Obama through smears goes badly which it might, the status of MO, MT, ND, and IN might flip and deliver the true landslide. (I gave Obama that 1 EC vote from NE) This makes a ceiling for Obama of 382 EC votes.
I will update again after the next debate and after seeing how the negative attacks play out.
Of the Obama states I have down for a final the most in play for McCain to take back would be OH (less likely) economic issues too much here and NC. The most likely McCain state to fall would be IN as said before. NV is almost in Obama’s safe map by the way. There are just way too many states for McCain to defend and Obama has way too many assets, even Carl Rove is predicting an Obama vicory as of today.
7 replies on “Obama Landslide Victory In The Making”
I think Obama will do great at the Town Hall meeting. Barack has a fantastic smile. One that lights up his whole face. This is disarming and his smile comes naturally and will benefit him in a Town Hall setting. McCain’s smile looks forced. This is a big difference and will have an impact on what the audience will pay attention to. Obama has what is known as a winning smile and the audience will react in a positive way to his smile.
From your ‘blog’ to God’s ear Cats.
Financially it’s getting critical in middle-class America .
I just spoke to TWO people whose financial situation changed drastically over the weekend.
1. The head of household who just had a baby so his wife is home – was laid off on Friday.
2. A single mother was called into her boss’s office and was told that she won’t get any raise this year. In addition they are ‘asking’ her to take a pay-cut otherwise they’ll have to lay her off and others in the company.
It s VERY scary and @#$!face McCain knows nothing about the economy.
First off – thanks to Jerr for posting this.
Paulette – The job market is tough right now. I retired from my job in May so that I could spend more time at my business. Crazy time for me to leave my job voluntarily as business has slowed down. Fortunately, I do have some savings to help me through the lean times because I don’t regret leaving my job. Yesterday, my son-in-law told me that where he works, the company will be laying off 50% of the workforce in his department. He has only been working there a little over a year so he is at risk. The good news is that I live in a big house so there is room enough for more if needed. When times are tough, people need to pull together their resources. This is what Barack Obama talks about… working together for the common good. We can do it. If McCain wins, people living on the edge of the envelope will fall off and we will have more homelessness and children sleeping in cars.
Obama has a ten point lead in Pennsylvania! Woo hoo!
McCain is self-destructing. In the town hall, he is going to come off as whiny, nasty and curt.
I definitely like the direction the polls are taking.
Real Clear Politics – which can be conservative in their projections – has moved Pennsylvania into a SOLID projection for Obama on their electoral map.
And the Virginia polls are now moving to Obama. One has Obama up 10 points:
I LIKE THE POSITIVE POSITION OF THE PREDICTION WHICH ALLOWS THOUGHTS BEYOND THE TWO PARTY SYSTEM. A NEW DAWN AWAITS US ALL AND IT’S ALL POSITIVE. THE STRUGGLE CONTINUES, KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK.