Just another quick update on my electoral college analysis, since my last update there has been some changes and of course we’ve had two debates. There are also have been some changes in my thinking as the blue wave is starting to to build yet again. With 30 days out it appears to me that this election is over, Americans are worried about actual issues instead of the silly stuff. McCain basically imploded and Palin isn’t enough to save him, it just gave a temporary reprieve to his campaign for a time. The chance of an Obama victory in the Electoral College nwo stands at a 90% chance. The chance of an Obama Landslide (375 EC votes +) has leaped from <5% to now 24%. But I would put his max performance in reality around the 350 range.
McCain has abandoned Michigan, PA finally is pulling away for Obama. This is seen below in a combined safe votes map. I’ve turned PA and MI blue. NM also is steady Obama and NH isn’t that close anymore. This added 47 more votes to Obama’s safe count. McCain on the other hand has lost his safe grip on MO and surprisingly MT. Also Obama is making apuch for that one EC vote in NE around Omaha that I’ve been talking about for so long. This is obvious because Sarah Palin was sent there to campaign there.
McCain’s main strategy now appears to be to defend bush states, but obviously doens’t have the angle or the resources to go after any Kerry states any more. Obama is just 5 EC shy now of his 269 win/tie, while Johnny Mac needs 101 more votes. There are 9 toss up states and anyone win for Obama except for one (MT) gets him the presidency. Big changes to my projection for Election night. Polling in VA and NC has been very good for Obama so at this point I have to say he is the favorite there. McCain will hold on in MT and MO and thats it (In is a true 50/50 filp), everywhere else will go to Obama. The missed polling of younger voters will more than over take any Bradley effect and any state where McCain doens’t have a lead now he will lose. If his attacking Obama through smears goes badly which it might, the status of MO, MT, ND, and IN might flip and deliver the true landslide. (I gave Obama that 1 EC vote from NE) This makes a ceiling for Obama of 382 EC votes.
I will update again after the next debate and after seeing how the negative attacks play out.
Of the Obama states I have down for a final the most in play for McCain to take back would be OH (less likely) economic issues too much here and NC. The most likely McCain state to fall would be IN as said before. NV is almost in Obama’s safe map by the way. There are just way too many states for McCain to defend and Obama has way too many assets, even Carl Rove is predicting an Obama vicory as of today.