The Nonsense Palin-Convention Bounce Is Over So Its Reality Time In The Electoral College Analysis

Long Time No Post eh ??? (I’m sure there is many readers on here that don’t even know who I am) But that isn’t so important… I’m the numbers and analysis guy, who started a new job and never has time to post anymore. But I did promise Cats that I would continue to do these for the blog and I am a man of my word.

So lets gets busy…

I also didn’t want to post in haste over the past few weeks I wanted to wait til the conventions in their bounces were over. But McCain (of course) had to go way way out in left feild for his VP selection. Which got the media all hyped and of course polls refelcted this, but we have a appeared to have come back down to reality now. The economic crisis that is unfolding have brought the issues back to the front of this race. BUt for all the percieved “trouble” that Obama was in in regards to the national tracking polls over the past weeks. In reality the Electoral College map still stayed in Obama’s favor. The best John McCain could come up with was a 269-269 tie in EC. That to me has spoke volumes, now that silly time is over, and real issues at least should, stay at the front of the race from here on out. I now put the odds of an Obama victory at nearly 80%. The media tried scaring us into believing that John McCain had a chance… quite simply barring a disaster this race is OVER. You will hear about the whole % 2 Obama lead in the polls could lead to Dem’s who say over the phone tehy’ll vote for Obama but in the booths they will not. You may hear how Conservative base is coming out energized by Palin and while Palin’s nomination helped secure this thing from getting out of hand as in a Blue Crush it will not stop the Barack Train. The fact of the matter is there are so many young people that are going to vote it will more than make up for these so called “Closet Dem Racists”. Come election night this will be obvious early on. It didn’t happen in 2000 or 2004, but I assue you the youngins are coming this time and their not voting for John McCain. This swell of young people are being completely missed by the polls at present, there is no accurate model for what is going to occur. Also African American participation is going to be ridiculously high, much higher than being modeled now in the polls. This effect will be seen early and often but it will be confined to certain regions and not others.

First we have to deal with some things that have changed since my last analysis. Palin’s nomination hast taken Alaska out of play for Obama… Also my possible southern switch isn’t going to occur in places like Georgia. I’ll be giving the high plains are of the country back to McCain but in the places where it matters this again is over.

Baseline Maps (Starting with Johnny Mac)

*WV is not represented in the number on the image above (even though it is colored in) real McCain number is 174

As can be seen I think John McCain has only secured 174 votes in the Electoral College, the Palin selection will help in some places that were not secure before Alaska, Montana, North Dakota and as said before I have delusions about Georgia anymore, also a noteable change in MO, I know they are used to selecting Presidents there but the streak will be broken (and if there was a Presidential Election for this to happen in, it will be this one)… I do believe this state though will represent the closests of McCain’s victories. But in the end lingering issues of race and Palin will push McCain over the top here. One are where I’ve given McCain the edge is in Nebraska, now remember the EC votes are split up here two for the winner of the state and three according to congressional district. District 2 is very much in play for Obama due to the fact it is the urban center for the state… So watch for fun and games here.

Moving on to “O”

AS can be seen Obama’s map has not been completely devistated as some might believe unlike McCain Obama has actually lost a few “safe” states, but has managed to pick up one… We’ll start there Iowa is not in play the polls are solid here, IA will be flipping blue, Obama’s orginization in that state was amazing in primary and that foundation is still there. There are two notable take away from Obama’s safe map… PA, and WI…. Just because they’re not safe doesn’t mean that they’re really that in jeopardy. PA due to its size and effect in the EC must be respected that is my reasoning for being cautious with the state for now, polls got close during silly time. I want to see where they stabalize at before giving back to Obama. WI is also taken away for now… polls here are tighter than they were before and the state was extremely close in 04′. Proximity to IL comes into play here, Independants are key in this state and just as NH need to be kept away so to does WI for now. This is one of those few places where the Palin selection may still have an impact on election day. I do not subscribe to the theory that either MN or MI are in play, MI especially due to the economic problems that are back up front and while there will be a day that MN will be a fight its not yet. Give it another 8 years, this wasn’t the time for a convention there. MN will likely be be the closests of Obama’s victories

So we’re at Obama 224 to McCain 174… Obama is 45 votes away from the white house, While McCain is 96 away. We have some very heavy hitting states out there that are left in play and are up for grabs… In order of influence in the Electoral College…

FL- With 27 EC votes it is a powerhouse as are the next two states…

PA- 21

OH- 20

After that we have the mid range states of influence…

NC- 15

VA- 13

IN- 11

WI- 10

And finally 4 small state of Influence (at least “small” relatively speaking)

CO- is the biggest with 9

NM and NV- 5

NH- 4

Of these 3 categories there are only 4 toss up’s in my oppinion (and one of them is not the one you are thinking),… There are also two surpises one being a big one.

Now for McCain’s leaners..

IN, NC and here is a surprise but not the big one OH ( I say this due to problems Obama had in the primary with raceist elements that remain here… plus a republican machine in place that knows how to play really dirty… Basically it will be close enough to steal if you believe in that thing.

So McCain will end up with 220 votes. Of the two toss ups that remain he will not have a possibility of reaching 270… He can only get 251 Max (if you’re good at math you’ve figured out the surprise by now.

Obama’s leaners

PA, WI, NM

This brings Obama to 260 (only 9 away from 269 remember a tie is an Obama win)

The 3 remaining toss ups are…

NH, CO, and VA

What’s missing ???

FLORIDA- which I am giving to Obama… 500,000 young already registered voters who did not participate in 04’… and nearly 1.2 million African Americans that are registered and also did not vote in 04′. Bush won the state by only 400,000 votes over Kerry. Also there is some evidence that people who were dissenfranchised didn’t show up in 04’… The polling samples from this state thus far have been very skewed since their numbers are based on demographics from the previous election. The polls that are trying to compenstae for this have had Obama higher than traditional pollsters.

This will be the final Election Results based on my current projections