The Nonsense Palin-Convention Bounce Is Over So Its Reality Time In The Electoral College Analysis

Long Time No Post eh ??? (I’m sure there is many readers on here that don’t even know who I am) But that isn’t so important… I’m the numbers and analysis guy, who started a new job and never has time to post anymore. But I did promise Cats that I would continue to do these for the blog and I am a man of my word.
So lets gets busy…

I also didn’t want to post in haste over the past few weeks I wanted to wait til the conventions in their bounces were over. But McCain (of course) had to go way way out in left feild for his VP selection. Which got the media all hyped and of course polls refelcted this, but we have a appeared to have come back down to reality now. The economic crisis that is unfolding have brought the issues back to the front of this race. BUt for all the percieved “trouble” that Obama was in in regards to the national tracking polls over the past weeks. In reality the Electoral College map still stayed in Obama’s favor. The best John McCain could come up with was a 269-269 tie in EC. That to me has spoke volumes, now that silly time is over, and real issues at least should, stay at the front of the race from here on out. I now put the odds of an Obama victory at nearly 80%. The media tried scaring us into believing that John McCain had a chance… quite simply barring a disaster this race is OVER. You will hear about the whole % 2 Obama lead in the polls could lead to Dem’s who say over the phone tehy’ll vote for Obama but in the booths they will not. You may hear how Conservative base is coming out energized by Palin and while Palin’s nomination helped secure this thing from getting out of hand as in a Blue Crush it will not stop the Barack Train. The fact of the matter is there are so many young people that are going to vote it will more than make up for these so called “Closet Dem Racists”. Come election night this will be obvious early on. It didn’t happen in 2000 or 2004, but I assue you the youngins are coming this time and their not voting for John McCain. This swell of young people are being completely missed by the polls at present, there is no accurate model for what is going to occur. Also African American participation is going to be ridiculously high, much higher than being modeled now in the polls. This effect will be seen early and often but it will be confined to certain regions and not others.

First we have to deal with some things that have changed since my last analysis. Palin’s nomination hast taken Alaska out of play for Obama… Also my possible southern switch isn’t going to occur in places like Georgia. I’ll be giving the high plains are of the country back to McCain but in the places where it matters this again is over.

Baseline Maps (Starting with Johnny Mac)

*WV is not represented in the number on the image above (even though it is colored in) real McCain number is 174

As can be seen I think John McCain has only secured 174 votes in the Electoral College, the Palin selection will help in some places that were not secure before Alaska, Montana, North Dakota and as said before I have delusions about Georgia anymore, also a noteable change in MO, I know they are used to selecting Presidents there but the streak will be broken (and if there was a Presidential Election for this to happen in, it will be this one)… I do believe this state though will represent the closests of McCain’s victories. But in the end lingering issues of race and Palin will push McCain over the top here. One are where I’ve given McCain the edge is in Nebraska, now remember the EC votes are split up here two for the winner of the state and three according to congressional district. District 2 is very much in play for Obama due to the fact it is the urban center for the state… So watch for fun and games here.

Moving on to “O”

AS can be seen Obama’s map has not been completely devistated as some might believe unlike McCain Obama has actually lost a few “safe” states, but has managed to pick up one… We’ll start there Iowa is not in play the polls are solid here, IA will be flipping blue, Obama’s orginization in that state was amazing in primary and that foundation is still there. There are two notable take away from Obama’s safe map… PA, and WI…. Just because they’re not safe doesn’t mean that they’re really that in jeopardy. PA due to its size and effect in the EC must be respected that is my reasoning for being cautious with the state for now, polls got close during silly time. I want to see where they stabalize at before giving back to Obama. WI is also taken away for now… polls here are tighter than they were before and the state was extremely close in 04′. Proximity to IL comes into play here, Independants are key in this state and just as NH need to be kept away so to does WI for now. This is one of those few places where the Palin selection may still have an impact on election day. I do not subscribe to the theory that either MN or MI are in play, MI especially due to the economic problems that are back up front and while there will be a day that MN will be a fight its not yet. Give it another 8 years, this wasn’t the time for a convention there. MN will likely be be the closests of Obama’s victories

So we’re at Obama 224 to McCain 174… Obama is 45 votes away from the white house, While McCain is 96 away. We have some very heavy hitting states out there that are left in play and are up for grabs… In order of influence in the Electoral College…

FL- With 27 EC votes it is a powerhouse as are the next two states…

PA- 21

OH- 20

After that we have the mid range states of influence…

NC- 15

VA- 13

IN- 11

WI- 10

And finally 4 small state of Influence (at least “small” relatively speaking)

CO- is the biggest with 9

NM and NV- 5

NH- 4

Of these 3 categories there are only 4 toss up’s in my oppinion (and one of them is not the one you are thinking),… There are also two surpises one being a big one.

Now for McCain’s leaners..

IN, NC and here is a surprise but not the big one OH ( I say this due to problems Obama had in the primary with raceist elements that remain here… plus a republican machine in place that knows how to play really dirty… Basically it will be close enough to steal if you believe in that thing.

So McCain will end up with 220 votes. Of the two toss ups that remain he will not have a possibility of reaching 270… He can only get 251 Max (if you’re good at math you’ve figured out the surprise by now.

Obama’s leaners

PA, WI, NM

This brings Obama to 260 (only 9 away from 269 remember a tie is an Obama win)

The 3 remaining toss ups are…

NH, CO, and VA

What’s missing ???

FLORIDA- which I am giving to Obama… 500,000 young already registered voters who did not participate in 04’… and nearly 1.2 million African Americans that are registered and also did not vote in 04′. Bush won the state by only 400,000 votes over Kerry. Also there is some evidence that people who were dissenfranchised didn’t show up in 04’… The polling samples from this state thus far have been very skewed since their numbers are based on demographics from the previous election. The polls that are trying to compenstae for this have had Obama higher than traditional pollsters.

This will be the final Election Results based on my current projections

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15 thoughts on “The Nonsense Palin-Convention Bounce Is Over So Its Reality Time In The Electoral College Analysis”

  1. Thanks… Cats.

    I wanted to note I have been blown away by some polling numbers today.

    VA both ABC and and Survey USA have a healthy lead for Obama at +6 and +8 respectively. Remember Survey USA is the powerhouse of all pollsters. NM is Obama +11 accoriding to PPP.

    PA’s numbers are concerning at +2 and +3 for Obama, Mason Dixon and Rasm… I really wanted to see them above 4.

    OH appears to be slipping away McCain +4

    NV is a toss up

    NC is the big change turning very tight there.

    Obama is locking up WI, MN, and MI

    What does this all mean ?

    in a very close election, Obama probably won’t have too many problems flipping enough Bush states. Iowa and New Mexico seem to be absolutely in the bag for him. And somewhere — maybe Colorado, maybe Virginia, or, somewhat less likely, Ohio, Indiana, Nevada or North Carolina — he’ll pick up that last state he needs to get him to 269 or 270 electoral votes.

    But all of this could be for naught if he blows Pennsylvania.

    I’m still banking on my Florida surprise scenario

  2. i think OH isn’t that important Kerry had few other places to go after Obama has alot of choices to get him at or above 269. FL will be damn interesting, but even without either Obama still should win, holding on to PA and winning CO will get him to 269 and the tie/win. And VA, IN, NH, NV anyone of those could give him the clean win without OH or FL. He could also pull out the rabbit in NC. There are so many ways Obama can win, McCain needs to take the big 3 (FL, OH, PA) and still hold off Obama in those 4 other states and if he doesn’t he need to take MN or WI. Its just so much more difficult to get McCain to 270, with where the narrative in this campaign is I just don’t see it. Polls are missing people that are voting for Obama. I can assure you of that. WIth this little amount of time left Obama has this essentially in the bag.

    One thing of note… a poll in Tampa shows Obama up by 6, as Tampa goes so to usually does the entire state of FL.

  3. Great post Jer1188.

    Great comments and polls numbers everyone. At this point I want Obama to BLOW McCain out of the race – not just win.

    I am so irritated by the mighty liar McCain and interview dodging Palin.

    Please register all the new voters you can – PLEASE challenge yourself – between now and next week – especially over the weekend. If you’re in the salon, spa, getting a haircut – wherever – please ask people if they are registered to vote and register them.

    Make sure they complete the form correctly (including Drivers License number) and sign.

    Keep a few forms in your pocket or pocket book and ask all the nice people you meet if they are registered or if they’ve moved or changed their name.

    We have to be vigilant. We have to get this done.

    EVERY VOTE COUNTS!!!

  4. All the polls are showing McCain dropping and Obama surging. The tanking economy will help Obama. McCain, with the exception of last Tuesday, has always been for deregulation which is a Reagan ideal and look where all this deregulation has placed our economy. Did the same damage to the electric bill for Californians and the CEO of Enron walked away with a golden parachute while the employees from Enron lost their pensions. McCain doesn’t have to worry about losing a pension. His wife has millions and he gets a military pension which is paid for by the taxpayers and he will get a regular government pension when he retires from the Senate, again paid for by the taxpayers.

    What’s really irritating is that the worst president ever, George W Bush, will collect a government pension paid for by the very people that he screwed, the taxpayer.

  5. The polls are really split when it comes to who do you think can handle the economy better and understands your problems better. 2-to-1 for Obama.

    And by the way, although I commented earlier about FL an OH, Obama could still win the electoral college without them if he wins upper midwest, PA, NJ, and few smaller states. That’s very doable.

    But I think Obama may now start really pulling away in some of these states.

  6. And just for fun, check out Mudflats.wordpress.com.

    A big anti-Palin rally in Anchorage this weekend. And this one is being really well organized. Can’t wait to see the turnout.

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