UPDATE: The analysis below was done back in July.
For the latest trend, go to DailyKos. Looks like the GOP Convention/Palin bump is declining and Obama is moving ahead. Looks like the American voter realizes that John McCain knows nothing about economics and McCain/Palin would bring more of the same failing economics that Bush gave us. Afterall, when Palin left her position as Mayor of Wasilla, she left a $200 million debt to a small town that had a surplus when she was first elected.
Obama has a plan that will provide more jobs and more money for the Middle Class… more jobs means more money in the pockets of Americans which means more money to buy goods which in return produces more jobs. Democrats have always done a better job with the economy.
McCain offers no real tax breaks for the Middle Class. He is offering a HUGE tax break to anyone that makes over $600,000/year. Looks like more of the same to me. “Thanks, but no thanks.” We need to change direction in Washington DC.
For a little fun with numbers…
Instead of making many maps I’ve consolidated a few things at least for the review…
In my analysis during the last update we left off with a hefty Obama advantage after adding his safe states and lean states the presidency was his, and what was overwhelming was the comparison of safe states where Obama was only 28 EC votes away from the presidency as apposed to John McCain whose safe states only brought him to 133. leaving him 137 away, his lean states only brining him to a total of 203 and having 60 EC votes as toss ups…
June 23rd Map Projection:
bigger image: http://i36.tinypic.com/34rzsd4.jpg
So what Changes do we have this go around
OBAMA’s GOOD NEWS
New Mexico is switching from Lean Obama to Safe Obama…
Michigan is also joining the safe Obama party
HERE IS THE BIG NEWS…
OHIO SHIFTS FROM TOSS UP TO LEAN OBAMA !!!!
Its just on my threshold for moving it to this category and being OH with that strong Republican machine I know this state will be a fight and I don’t doubt that this could easily slip back into the toss up category but for now it looks like an Obama state…
More Good News For Obama
Switching from Lean McCain states to now toss up states… North Carolina, Montana and North Dakota.
Although ND and MT have not been polled much… the pollsters that have an accurate rating that have ventured to do these states show either an Obama lead or a very close race… North Carolina logically has always been in play but only in the recent polling has this been shown Barr will also take away McCain votes here and that effect is shown on the gragh. There is also reason to believe Obama will over perform here…
*only NC shown…
But the Obama Wave has ended in a couple spots including the loss of a state… Colorodo, which in my oppinion will be a a very important state if McCain can keep election night close… it has now switched from lean Obama to toss up… But the convention will help big time.
And although I’ve decided to keep Iowa in Obama’s camp I’ve switched it to Lean, it is a strong lean but the last few polls are closer than I’d like to see.
Now lets switch to McCain land where things went from not so good to down right BAD !!!!
I’ve already told you about the 21 EC votes that went from McCain Lean to toss up, but McCain is now in real trouble in some states that he shouldn’t be… beginning alpahabetically Arizona… I can’t believe it but its true… also in TX (this is the first time since 1980 that a Bush is not on the ballot with the exception of the 96′ election… A recent Zogby poll has shown South Carolina not to be so safe either
So what does this all add up to ???
Obama Map (Safe and Lean)
bigger image : http://i33.tinypic.com/20u8j6x.jpg
and Senator McCain’s
Bigger image: http://i34.tinypic.com/28uofax.jpg
So In the Break Down
Solid- 257 (+15 from June update) 13 away from Presidency
Solid- 81 (- 52 from June)
*Interesting to note the difference in solid EC state votes and the overal trend
So here is all is with toss up states which have ticked up another 10 EC votes…
bigger image: http://i38.tinypic.com/wlrh9l.jpg
I’ll try to do another update pre-convention