Electoral College Analysis Update… Does The Shift To Obama Continue ??

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UPDATE: The analysis below was done back in July.

For the latest trend, go to DailyKos.  Looks like the GOP Convention/Palin bump is declining and Obama is moving ahead.  Looks like the American voter realizes that John McCain knows nothing about economics and McCain/Palin would bring more of the same failing economics that Bush gave us.  Afterall, when Palin left her position as Mayor of Wasilla, she left a $200 million debt to a small town that had a surplus when she was first elected.

Obama has a plan that will provide more jobs and more money for the Middle Class… more jobs means more money in the pockets of Americans which means more money to buy goods which in return produces more jobs.   Democrats have always done a better job with the economy.

McCain offers no real tax breaks for the Middle Class.  He is offering a HUGE tax break to anyone that makes over $600,000/year. Looks like more of the same to me.  “Thanks, but no thanks.”  We need to change direction in Washington DC.

For a little fun with numbers

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Instead of making many maps I’ve consolidated a few things at least for the review…

In my analysis during the last update we left off with a hefty Obama advantage after adding his safe states and lean states the presidency was his, and what was overwhelming was the comparison of safe states where Obama was only 28 EC votes away from the presidency as apposed to John McCain whose safe states only brought him to 133. leaving him 137 away, his lean states only brining him to a total of 203 and having 60 EC votes as toss ups…

June 23rd Map Projection:

bigger image: http://i36.tinypic.com/34rzsd4.jpg

So what Changes do we have this go around

OBAMA’s GOOD NEWS

New Mexico is switching from Lean Obama to Safe Obama…

Michigan is also joining the safe Obama party

HERE IS THE BIG NEWS…

OHIO SHIFTS FROM TOSS UP TO LEAN OBAMA !!!!

Its just on my threshold for moving it to this category and being OH with that strong Republican machine I know this state will be a fight and I don’t doubt that this could easily slip back into the toss up category but for now it looks like an Obama state…

More Good News For Obama

Switching from Lean McCain states to now toss up states… North Carolina, Montana and North Dakota.

Although ND and MT have not been polled much… the pollsters that have an accurate rating that have ventured to do these states show either an Obama lead or a very close race… North Carolina logically has always been in play but only in the recent polling has this been shown Barr will also take away McCain votes here and that effect is shown on the gragh. There is also reason to believe Obama will over perform here…

*only NC shown…

But the Obama Wave has ended in a couple spots including the loss of a state… Colorodo, which in my oppinion will be a a very important state if McCain can keep election night close… it has now switched from lean Obama to toss up… But the convention will help big time.

And although I’ve decided to keep Iowa in Obama’s camp I’ve switched it to Lean, it is a strong lean but the last few polls are closer than I’d like to see.

Now lets switch to McCain land where things went from not so good to down right BAD !!!!

I’ve already told you about the 21 EC votes that went from McCain Lean to toss up, but McCain is now in real trouble in some states that he shouldn’t be… beginning alpahabetically Arizona… I can’t believe it but its true… also in TX (this is the first time since 1980 that a Bush is not on the ballot with the exception of the 96′ election… A recent Zogby poll has shown South Carolina not to be so safe either

So what does this all add up to ???

Obama Map (Safe and Lean)

bigger image : http://i33.tinypic.com/20u8j6x.jpg

and Senator McCain’s

Bigger image: http://i34.tinypic.com/28uofax.jpg

So In the Break Down

Obama

Solid- 257 (+15 from June update) 13 away from Presidency

Lean- 27

McCain

Solid- 81 (- 52 from June)

Lean- 103

*Interesting to note the difference in solid EC state votes and the overal trend

So here is all is with toss up states which have ticked up another 10 EC votes…

bigger image: http://i38.tinypic.com/wlrh9l.jpg

I’ll try to do another update pre-convention

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9 thoughts on “Electoral College Analysis Update… Does The Shift To Obama Continue ??”

  1. Obama has flipped and flopped all over the place and now has the far left supporters upset with him!

  2. I wouldn’t give up on Colorado. That state is turning bluer by the minute. There is a growing “progressive” movement in Colorado and they will NOT vote for McCain.

    It keeps getting worse for McCain. Everyday that he opens his mouth he sounds more confused. Is he for it or is he against it or what was his position and what is his position now? He doesn’t know and he doesn’t remember. I do know this, women’s rights are not something that matters to him.

  3. Loomis – I read the link that you provided and I wouldn’t consider Pennsylvania a toss up. Governor Ed Rendell and Senator Bob Casey both won with strong margins.

  4. Cats…. I do believe Colorodo will be ok as well, and for all the people that are thinking PA is a toss up I ask for some proof, this state has goten blue-er since 2000… and the average of all polls right now is OBAMA by 9.5 thats quite an average and he’s approaching the 50 percent mark once one sees that in a poll its pretty much a sealed deal… same goes for Wisconcin latest poll i saw was two days ago and had Obama at 50 already….

    Only one state that I have as Obama solid i could see switching and that is NH polls are way ahead for Obama but prior were erratic and McCain has that base there.

    Another thing about CO… not one poll has shown McCain ahead yet, i probably should have left it as lean but the last poll was a lil close for my liking…

  5. You EVC analysis is so bogus. Why don’t you take a look at what the grownup analysts are concluding? e.g., RCP show JM ahead of BO. But I suppose you can live in fantasyland ’til Nov 3; then reality will intrude! Just keep smokin whatver you have there, dude.

  6. brian – this is an old analysis. Look at the date.

    The interest and excitement around Palin is dwindling. McCain knows nothing about the economy. He said so himself. And Palin has other people, including her husband Todd, manage the finances in Alaska. When she left office in Wasilla, she left the town with a $200 million debt. Typical Republican economics. Spend, spend, spend and then spend again. Let the next several generations pay off the bill. They don’t care as long as they get theirs. Greed…. one of the Cardinal sins.

    McCain/Palin will not bring change to Washington DC. McCain comes with all his lobbyists and Palin will bring her cronies.

    In a letter to state Sen. Hollis French, the Democrat overseeing the investigation, Republican Attorney General Talis Colberg asked that the subpoenas be withdrawn. He also said the employees would refuse to appear unless either the full state Senate or the entire Legislature votes to compel their testimony.

    Colberg, who was appointed by Palin, said the employees are caught between their respect for the Legislature and their loyalty to the governor, who initially agreed to cooperate with the inquiry but has increasingly opposed it since McCain chose her as his running mate.

    I would expect respect for the law would come first but not in the case with these Republicans from Alaska.

    If you can’t see that Obama will bring tax breaks to the Middle Class and appoint qualified people and not cronies, then you must be wearing your racist glasses. Look deep in your heart and you will see that you have issues with people of color.

  7. Your graphs are from accurate, especially the North Carolina and Ohio above. If you look at real clear politics and eliminate the fringe polls, it gives a more realistic story.

    The truth is that Colorado is much closer of race then they say.

    I would not over look New Hampshire and New Mexico.

    This race is NOT trending toward Obama as your article implies. In fact, the latest polls show a trending away from Obama.

    … so with that said… this looks MUCH like the GW Bush vs Gore election then any other.

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